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Would this retirement have survived UK history?
A historical cohort stress test. It takes one cash-and-gilts withdrawal plan and replays it from every start year in three centuries of Bank of England data, then reports how often the pot would have kept a positive balance to the end of the horizon. Every figure is historical arithmetic on a single asset mix, not a forecast.
Historical survival
The share of start years whose deterministic replay kept a positive balance for the whole 30-year horizon.
Kept a positive balance
155 / 284
55% of start years
| Start year | Retirement window | Outcome | Ran out |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1704 | 1704–1733 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1705 | 1705–1734 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1706 | 1706–1735 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1707 | 1707–1736 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1708 | 1708–1737 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1709 | 1709–1738 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1710 | 1710–1739 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1711 | 1711–1740 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1712 | 1712–1741 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1713 | 1713–1742 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1714 | 1714–1743 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1715 | 1715–1744 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1716 | 1716–1745 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1717 | 1717–1746 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1718 | 1718–1747 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1719 | 1719–1748 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1720 | 1720–1749 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1721 | 1721–1750 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1722 | 1722–1751 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1723 | 1723–1752 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1724 | 1724–1753 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1725 | 1725–1754 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1726 | 1726–1755 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1727 | 1727–1756 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1728 | 1728–1757 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1729 | 1729–1758 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1730 | 1730–1759 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1731 | 1731–1760 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1732 | 1732–1761 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1733 | 1733–1762 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1734 | 1734–1763 | Ran out of money | 1763 |
| 1735 | 1735–1764 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1736 | 1736–1765 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1737 | 1737–1766 | Ran out of money | 1764 |
| 1738 | 1738–1767 | Ran out of money | 1767 |
| 1739 | 1739–1768 | Ran out of money | 1767 |
| 1740 | 1740–1769 | Ran out of money | 1768 |
| 1741 | 1741–1770 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1742 | 1742–1771 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1743 | 1743–1772 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1744 | 1744–1773 | Ran out of money | 1773 |
| 1745 | 1745–1774 | Ran out of money | 1770 |
| 1746 | 1746–1775 | Ran out of money | 1773 |
| 1747 | 1747–1776 | Ran out of money | 1776 |
| 1748 | 1748–1777 | Ran out of money | 1776 |
| 1749 | 1749–1778 | Ran out of money | 1777 |
| 1750 | 1750–1779 | Ran out of money | 1776 |
| 1751 | 1751–1780 | Ran out of money | 1776 |
| 1752 | 1752–1781 | Ran out of money | 1778 |
| 1753 | 1753–1782 | Ran out of money | 1779 |
| 1754 | 1754–1783 | Ran out of money | 1779 |
| 1755 | 1755–1784 | Ran out of money | 1780 |
| 1756 | 1756–1785 | Ran out of money | 1779 |
| 1757 | 1757–1786 | Ran out of money | 1784 |
| 1758 | 1758–1787 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1759 | 1759–1788 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1760 | 1760–1789 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1761 | 1761–1790 | Ran out of money | 1787 |
| 1762 | 1762–1791 | Ran out of money | 1788 |
| 1763 | 1763–1792 | Ran out of money | 1790 |
| 1764 | 1764–1793 | Ran out of money | 1788 |
| 1765 | 1765–1794 | Ran out of money | 1794 |
| 1766 | 1766–1795 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1767 | 1767–1796 | Ran out of money | 1796 |
| 1768 | 1768–1797 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1769 | 1769–1798 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1770 | 1770–1799 | Ran out of money | 1797 |
| 1771 | 1771–1800 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1772 | 1772–1801 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1773 | 1773–1802 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1774 | 1774–1803 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1775 | 1775–1804 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1776 | 1776–1805 | Ran out of money | 1805 |
| 1777 | 1777–1806 | Ran out of money | 1804 |
| 1778 | 1778–1807 | Ran out of money | 1807 |
| 1779 | 1779–1808 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1780 | 1780–1809 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1781 | 1781–1810 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1782 | 1782–1811 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1783 | 1783–1812 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1784 | 1784–1813 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1785 | 1785–1814 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1786 | 1786–1815 | Ran out of money | 1814 |
| 1787 | 1787–1816 | Ran out of money | 1810 |
| 1788 | 1788–1817 | Ran out of money | 1811 |
| 1789 | 1789–1818 | Ran out of money | 1812 |
| 1790 | 1790–1819 | Ran out of money | 1811 |
| 1791 | 1791–1820 | Ran out of money | 1813 |
| 1792 | 1792–1821 | Ran out of money | 1812 |
| 1793 | 1793–1822 | Ran out of money | 1811 |
| 1794 | 1794–1823 | Ran out of money | 1814 |
| 1795 | 1795–1824 | Ran out of money | 1817 |
| 1796 | 1796–1825 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1797 | 1797–1826 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1798 | 1798–1827 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1799 | 1799–1828 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1800 | 1800–1829 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1801 | 1801–1830 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1802 | 1802–1831 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1803 | 1803–1832 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1804 | 1804–1833 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1805 | 1805–1834 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1806 | 1806–1835 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1807 | 1807–1836 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1808 | 1808–1837 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1809 | 1809–1838 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1810 | 1810–1839 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1811 | 1811–1840 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1812 | 1812–1841 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1813 | 1813–1842 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1814 | 1814–1843 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1815 | 1815–1844 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1816 | 1816–1845 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1817 | 1817–1846 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1818 | 1818–1847 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1819 | 1819–1848 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1820 | 1820–1849 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1821 | 1821–1850 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1822 | 1822–1851 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1823 | 1823–1852 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1824 | 1824–1853 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1825 | 1825–1854 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1826 | 1826–1855 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1827 | 1827–1856 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1828 | 1828–1857 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1829 | 1829–1858 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1830 | 1830–1859 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1831 | 1831–1860 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1832 | 1832–1861 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1833 | 1833–1862 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1834 | 1834–1863 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1835 | 1835–1864 | Ran out of money | 1864 |
| 1836 | 1836–1865 | Ran out of money | 1863 |
| 1837 | 1837–1866 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1838 | 1838–1867 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1839 | 1839–1868 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1840 | 1840–1869 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1841 | 1841–1870 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1842 | 1842–1871 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1843 | 1843–1872 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1844 | 1844–1873 | Ran out of money | 1870 |
| 1845 | 1845–1874 | Ran out of money | 1872 |
| 1846 | 1846–1875 | Ran out of money | 1873 |
| 1847 | 1847–1876 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1848 | 1848–1877 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1849 | 1849–1878 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1850 | 1850–1879 | Ran out of money | 1877 |
| 1851 | 1851–1880 | Ran out of money | 1876 |
| 1852 | 1852–1881 | Ran out of money | 1875 |
| 1853 | 1853–1882 | Ran out of money | 1876 |
| 1854 | 1854–1883 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1855 | 1855–1884 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1856 | 1856–1885 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1857 | 1857–1886 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1858 | 1858–1887 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1859 | 1859–1888 | Ran out of money | 1887 |
| 1860 | 1860–1889 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1861 | 1861–1890 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1862 | 1862–1891 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1863 | 1863–1892 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1864 | 1864–1893 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1865 | 1865–1894 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1866 | 1866–1895 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1867 | 1867–1896 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1868 | 1868–1897 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1869 | 1869–1898 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1870 | 1870–1899 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1871 | 1871–1900 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1872 | 1872–1901 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1873 | 1873–1902 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1874 | 1874–1903 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1875 | 1875–1904 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1876 | 1876–1905 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1877 | 1877–1906 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1878 | 1878–1907 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1879 | 1879–1908 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1880 | 1880–1909 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1881 | 1881–1910 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1882 | 1882–1911 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1883 | 1883–1912 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1884 | 1884–1913 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1885 | 1885–1914 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1886 | 1886–1915 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1887 | 1887–1916 | Ran out of money | 1916 |
| 1888 | 1888–1917 | Ran out of money | 1916 |
| 1889 | 1889–1918 | Ran out of money | 1916 |
| 1890 | 1890–1919 | Ran out of money | 1917 |
| 1891 | 1891–1920 | Ran out of money | 1917 |
| 1892 | 1892–1921 | Ran out of money | 1918 |
| 1893 | 1893–1922 | Ran out of money | 1918 |
| 1894 | 1894–1923 | Ran out of money | 1918 |
| 1895 | 1895–1924 | Ran out of money | 1918 |
| 1896 | 1896–1925 | Ran out of money | 1918 |
| 1897 | 1897–1926 | Ran out of money | 1918 |
| 1898 | 1898–1927 | Ran out of money | 1918 |
| 1899 | 1899–1928 | Ran out of money | 1919 |
| 1900 | 1900–1929 | Ran out of money | 1919 |
| 1901 | 1901–1930 | Ran out of money | 1920 |
| 1902 | 1902–1931 | Ran out of money | 1921 |
| 1903 | 1903–1932 | Ran out of money | 1921 |
| 1904 | 1904–1933 | Ran out of money | 1922 |
| 1905 | 1905–1934 | Ran out of money | 1922 |
| 1906 | 1906–1935 | Ran out of money | 1922 |
| 1907 | 1907–1936 | Ran out of money | 1922 |
| 1908 | 1908–1937 | Ran out of money | 1923 |
| 1909 | 1909–1938 | Ran out of money | 1923 |
| 1910 | 1910–1939 | Ran out of money | 1924 |
| 1911 | 1911–1940 | Ran out of money | 1925 |
| 1912 | 1912–1941 | Ran out of money | 1925 |
| 1913 | 1913–1942 | Ran out of money | 1926 |
| 1914 | 1914–1943 | Ran out of money | 1927 |
| 1915 | 1915–1944 | Ran out of money | 1927 |
| 1916 | 1916–1945 | Ran out of money | 1931 |
| 1917 | 1917–1946 | Ran out of money | 1938 |
| 1918 | 1918–1947 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1919 | 1919–1948 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1920 | 1920–1949 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1921 | 1921–1950 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1922 | 1922–1951 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1923 | 1923–1952 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1924 | 1924–1953 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1925 | 1925–1954 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1926 | 1926–1955 | Ran out of money | 1955 |
| 1927 | 1927–1956 | Ran out of money | 1955 |
| 1928 | 1928–1957 | Ran out of money | 1955 |
| 1929 | 1929–1958 | Ran out of money | 1955 |
| 1930 | 1930–1959 | Ran out of money | 1955 |
| 1931 | 1931–1960 | Ran out of money | 1954 |
| 1932 | 1932–1961 | Ran out of money | 1954 |
| 1933 | 1933–1962 | Ran out of money | 1953 |
| 1934 | 1934–1963 | Ran out of money | 1952 |
| 1935 | 1935–1964 | Ran out of money | 1952 |
| 1936 | 1936–1965 | Ran out of money | 1952 |
| 1937 | 1937–1966 | Ran out of money | 1952 |
| 1938 | 1938–1967 | Ran out of money | 1953 |
| 1939 | 1939–1968 | Ran out of money | 1954 |
| 1940 | 1940–1969 | Ran out of money | 1955 |
| 1941 | 1941–1970 | Ran out of money | 1957 |
| 1942 | 1942–1971 | Ran out of money | 1958 |
| 1943 | 1943–1972 | Ran out of money | 1959 |
| 1944 | 1944–1973 | Ran out of money | 1959 |
| 1945 | 1945–1974 | Ran out of money | 1960 |
| 1946 | 1946–1975 | Ran out of money | 1960 |
| 1947 | 1947–1976 | Ran out of money | 1960 |
| 1948 | 1948–1977 | Ran out of money | 1962 |
| 1949 | 1949–1978 | Ran out of money | 1965 |
| 1950 | 1950–1979 | Ran out of money | 1966 |
| 1951 | 1951–1980 | Ran out of money | 1967 |
| 1952 | 1952–1981 | Ran out of money | 1970 |
| 1953 | 1953–1982 | Ran out of money | 1973 |
| 1954 | 1954–1983 | Ran out of money | 1973 |
| 1955 | 1955–1984 | Ran out of money | 1973 |
| 1956 | 1956–1985 | Ran out of money | 1975 |
| 1957 | 1957–1986 | Ran out of money | 1977 |
| 1958 | 1958–1987 | Ran out of money | 1978 |
| 1959 | 1959–1988 | Ran out of money | 1978 |
| 1960 | 1960–1989 | Ran out of money | 1978 |
| 1961 | 1961–1990 | Ran out of money | 1979 |
| 1962 | 1962–1991 | Ran out of money | 1980 |
| 1963 | 1963–1992 | Ran out of money | 1981 |
| 1964 | 1964–1993 | Ran out of money | 1981 |
| 1965 | 1965–1994 | Ran out of money | 1982 |
| 1966 | 1966–1995 | Ran out of money | 1982 |
| 1967 | 1967–1996 | Ran out of money | 1983 |
| 1968 | 1968–1997 | Ran out of money | 1983 |
| 1969 | 1969–1998 | Ran out of money | 1984 |
| 1970 | 1970–1999 | Ran out of money | 1987 |
| 1971 | 1971–2000 | Ran out of money | 1988 |
| 1972 | 1972–2001 | Ran out of money | 1989 |
| 1973 | 1973–2002 | Ran out of money | 1991 |
| 1974 | 1974–2003 | Ran out of money | 1995 |
| 1975 | 1975–2004 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1976 | 1976–2005 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1977 | 1977–2006 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1978 | 1978–2007 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1979 | 1979–2008 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1980 | 1980–2009 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1981 | 1981–2010 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1982 | 1982–2011 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1983 | 1983–2012 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1984 | 1984–2013 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1985 | 1985–2014 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1986 | 1986–2015 | Kept a positive balance | — |
| 1987 | 1987–2016 | Kept a positive balance | — |
The five that ran out soonest
The start years whose pot ran dry earliest on this withdrawal plan.
| Start year | Retirement window | Years funded | Ran out in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1915 | 1915–1944 | 12 years | 1927 |
| 1912 | 1912–1941 | 13 years | 1925 |
| 1913 | 1913–1942 | 13 years | 1926 |
| 1914 | 1914–1943 | 13 years | 1927 |
| 1947 | 1947–1976 | 13 years | 1960 |
On this withdrawal plan, 6 of 7 retirements that began in the First World War years (1912–1918) ran out of money, and all 10 retirements that began in the decade to 1974 (1965–1974) ran out of money, as sustained inflation eroded the real return on cash and gilts.
What this test does and does not cover
- The underlying Bank of England dataset contains no dividend series, so its share-price index captures capital movements only. Equities are deliberately excluded from this calculator: a total-return equity result cannot be built from this data, and a capital-only one would understate what shares actually returned.
- Results are historical arithmetic, not forecasts. Each start year replays the same fixed cash and gilts mix through the inflation and yields that were actually recorded; the future need not resemble any of them.
- This standalone calculator replays historical data; the EnoughDay planner’s 5,000-future simulation is a separate parametric model that does not use this Bank of England dataset. See the methodology for how the two differ.
Contains Bank of England data: 'A millennium of macroeconomic data for the UK' (v3.1). Reproduced under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Keep these figures
EnoughDay will carry only the fields this calculator identifies. You will review wrapper totals before the plan can be saved.
- Starting wealth and retirement spending
- 30-year history horizon as context only — no absolute horizon age is inferred
A worked example
The numbers below are computed at build time from the same dataset sweep the calculator runs, so they always match the engine. The full method, sources and known simplifications are on the methodology page.
On the default settings — a £500,000 pot spending £25,000 a year over 30 years, split 50% cash and 50% gilts — this withdrawal plan would have kept a positive balance in 155 of the 284 start years from 1704 to 1987, or 55% of them. The remaining 129 start years ran out of money before the end of the 30-year horizon.
The retirement that began in 1915 ran dry fastest, funding 12 years of spending before the pot ran out in 1927 — inside the First World War inflation that hurt cash-and-gilts retirees most.
This is historical arithmetic on a single fixed asset mix, not a forecast. Because the Bank of England dataset carries no dividend series, equities are excluded rather than modelled from capital-only prices, so the example describes a deliberately conservative cash-and-gilts retirement.
- Research datasets, incl. 'A millennium of macroeconomic data' (Bank of England)
- Open Government Licence v3.0 (The National Archives)
Contains Bank of England data: 'A millennium of macroeconomic data for the UK' (v3.1). Reproduced under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
FAQ
What does this stress test actually do?
It takes one withdrawal plan — a starting pot, a level of annual spending held constant in real terms, and a fixed cash and gilts mix — and replays it from every start year in the Bank of England historical series. For each start year it runs the same year-by-year arithmetic on the inflation and yields actually recorded, then reports how many of those start years would have kept the pot's balance above zero for the whole horizon.
Why are equities left out of this calculator?
The underlying Bank of England dataset contains no dividend series, so its share-price index measures capital movements only. A total-return equity figure cannot be reconstructed from capital prices alone, and using the capital-only index would badly understate what shares actually returned once dividends are counted. Rather than publish a misleading equity result, this calculator restricts itself to cash and gilts, where the dataset does support a defensible real-return series.
Are these results a forecast of a future retirement?
No. Every figure here is historical arithmetic: it describes how a fixed plan would have fared against inflation and interest rates that have already happened. The future need not resemble any past start year, and this test reports frequencies across history rather than the probability of any outcome ahead. It is a way to see how a plan copes with the range the past actually delivered, not a prediction.
Which historical periods were hardest for a cash-and-gilts retiree?
Start years clustered around the two great UK inflations fared worst. Retirements beginning in the First World War years and again in the decade to 1974 saw sustained double-digit inflation cut the real value of both cash interest and gilt income, so many of those pots ran out of money well before the end of a normal retirement. The worst-affected start years, with the year each ran dry, are listed on the page for the settings entered.
What does the pot earn each year in the model?
Each year the plan withdraws the chosen spending, then the remaining balance earns a blended real return: the recorded real return on cash (the Bank Rate less inflation) on the cash portion, and the recorded real total return on consols on the gilts portion, weighted by the split entered. Spending is held constant in real terms, so the arithmetic is entirely in today's money and no separate inflation assumption is layered on top.
Does holding more cash make a plan safer here?
Not reliably. In the high-inflation windows that sink the most cohorts, both cash and long gilts delivered deeply negative real returns, so shifting the split between them changed which start years failed but rarely rescued the worst ones. Moving the cash and gilts slider shows how the surviving share responds; on this data neither extreme escapes the inflationary decades unscathed.
What counts as keeping a positive balance?
A start year is counted as surviving when the pot funds the full real spending every year and its balance never falls to zero or below across the whole horizon. The first year a withdrawal would take the balance to zero or below, that start year is recorded as having run out, along with the calendar year it happened. It is a pass or fail on one historical path, not a probability.
Why does the data start in 1704 and stop in 2016?
The Bank of England series has complete joint coverage of inflation, interest rates and gilt yields from 1703 to 2016. The consol total-return figure needs the previous year's yield, so the usable return series begins in 1704, and the last full year in the dataset is 2016. The available start years therefore depend on the horizon: a longer retirement leaves fewer complete windows to replay.
Model your own plan with forward-looking simulations
This test looks backward at one fixed asset mix. The full EnoughDay plan looks forward instead — it models your SIPP, ISA and GIA, UK tax by year, and a range of market outcomes rather than a single history.
Start a fresh full plan